Monday, December 24, 2007

Dell的购买和售后,一些你所不知的潜规则

购买篇:

Dell内部原来分为两个部门,1个是大客户部门,1个是小客户部门,现在多了个系统集成部,购买的时候一定打800电话,不要在网上购买。 Dell的财季为2-4,5-7,8-10,11-1。购买时间一定选在财季的最后一个月。因为这个时候折扣是最好批的,inside(接电话的销售)为了完成业绩会用最大的权限给你批折扣。家用机的折扣小,商用机的折扣相当大(对比网上的价格)。如果买笔记本一定加上complete cover(全面保护)和三年NBD(下一个工作日上门),原因后面讲。买得时候,多讲一些前面我写的英文单词,这样inside会觉得你对dell很熟悉。另外拨通电话的第一句,问他(她)那个部门的,等报出价格后威胁一下是否折扣给好了,给的不好你可以威胁换部门订购。在付钱之前一定让inside给你传真或者mail一个配置单,仔细核对。另外部分商用笔记本是可以去掉操作系统的(网站上不会标)。另外给销售打电话前,先自己在dell网站上做个配置并生成价格但不要下一步(第二也是和本机无关的配件)。另外有时候随电脑加一个配件(比如笔记本加一个液晶显示器,那么这个夜景的折扣也可以跟着笔记本打同样的折扣甚至享受同样的质保,比单独从dell下单买这个部件要便宜很多。我曾经从dell下单买100台台式机多搭了100个微软的ie 3.0鼠标,才90多块钱,比微软自家卖的不知便宜多少)。

 

维修篇:

没有全保服务,但是有NBD(1-5年),那么报修前准备这些资料:dell的报修流程是必须过电话诊断关。只有当接线工程师确认你硬件坏了才会给你下单派工程师上门更换部件。所以不管你的电脑某个部件是不是好,直接告诉工程师就是不能用。我举个例子,比如你光驱读盘不行,你可以直接说光驱不认盘,而且说朋友或者同事有一台同型号的,换他的就能读盘,这样省你时间也省工程师时间。衍生开去,其实只有dell能做到在报修期内免费升级部件。举几个真实案例:客户的P4台式机,原来是P4 1.8的,用了半年,看到dell网站上同型号的机器的CPU最低为2.0了,开始准备报修升级CPU,先做以下工作:打开机箱,直接把cpu拔下来,然后通电,注意看机箱后面的故障的亮法,记下后开始报修。工程师一般会判断主板坏,这个时候你可以说办公室有其他同样的机器,你试过了,cpu插到别的机器点不亮,因此可能是cpu坏了。这样dell的工程师铁定给你下单了,当上门工程师来之前,你可以把办公室的电或者家里的电闸拉掉,然后说停电,这样上门工程师就无法复查,基本就直接给你换了。等到签字完就没关系了,东西出门了就不认帐了。同理,升级光驱的速度也可以这样干,甚至可以自己直接刷坏。总之,一句话,想让dell上门,你就必须给接线的工程师一个明确的结果,东西就是坏了。(当然外观不能有损坏)
如果有全保,那就完全不一样了,只要不说是有意摔坏的,都能换。当然报修还是有技巧的。比如屏幕有亮点不能保修,但是点不亮了就能保修。。。。办法有很多,大家充分发挥想象吧。

另外:dell虽然没有代理商,但是有无数个行业合作伙伴(俗称集成商),比如我给市ZF供货的,由于量大,折扣批的会很好,那么借这个机会,可以多下一些机器,电子城里卖的那些大多是这样来的。价格有时候会比你经过上面我讲的订购过程还要便宜。此时,你只要让js把你要买得极其的service tag(服务编号)给你,你马上通过电话把这个号给你能上网的朋友,查一下出场日期和配置以及服务,核对下来没问题,那么就可以下手了。有没有票是完全没有关系的。
个人总结一句话:你如果熟悉dell,那么你会觉得dell的服务太好了,有很多漏洞能钻,如果不熟悉dell,那么你会觉得dell的服务是臭狗屎。题外话:dell的服务一向是外包的,和ibm的蓝快是一样的。曾经有几年,dell的服务商和hp的服务商就是一家人家。。。

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Where Dell Sells With Brick and Mortar

Where Dell Sells With Brick and Mortar

In crucial economies overseas, its old direct-sales model hasn't paid off

Buying a computer, putting it in your trunk, and driving home with it may not seem revolutionary--unless that computer is a Dell (DELL). The company pioneered made-to-order, direct-to-customer PC sales, and boasts on its Web site that it can introduce the latest technology "more quickly than companies with slow-moving, indirect distribution."

Now, as its global market share slips, Dell Inc. is giving that slow-motion model a closer look. The company is cautiously becoming a brick-and-mortar retailer, a path that has paid off big-time for rival Apple Inc. (AAPL) but which hobbled computer maker Gateway Inc. (GTW) In October, Dell will open a store in an upscale Moscow mall. That follows the introduction of a similar outlet in downtown Budapest in April.

These aren't the simple kiosks found in some U.S. malls, where consumers can try out Dell machines but must place an order for later delivery. Although operated by local partners, these stores stock only Dell PCs, which shoppers can buy on the spot and take home. "In Hungary, Internet shopping is not as widespread as in the U.S. or Western Europe, so it is very important that people can come to the brand store," says Tamás Damján, country manager for Dell Hungary. Dell won't detail plans for stores elsewhere, but hints that more are likely.

Not long ago, this approach would have been sacrilegious, but Dell needs to find a way to tap into emerging markets. In Russia, for instance, laptop sales are growing about 50% a year, but Dell only ranks eighth, with a 4.2% share, according to researcher IDC. In desktops, Dell doesn't even make the top 10. To boost its share, the company needs stores since, like most emerging countries, Russia lacks the home delivery services needed to support direct sales, and customers have little experience with e-commerce.

The stores in Budapest and Moscow represent just the latest move toward traditional retailing for Dell. This year, the company started selling at Wal-Mart (WAM) in the U.S., Carphone Warehouse (CRWHF) stores in Britain, and Bic Camera outlets in Japan. And on Sept. 24, Dell announced it was teaming up with China's biggest electronics retailer, Gome. After nearly a decade in China, the second-biggest computer market after the U.S., Dell has less than 10% share among corporate buyers there and only 2.5% of consumers. That's in part because the Chinese enjoy shopping in stores and find delivery inconvenient. Dell is also considering traditional retail outlets in India, another market with vast potential but similarly poor conditions for direct sales.

Selling in retail stores exposes Dell to new challenges: anticipating what kind of PCs consumers will want and managing inventory. With direct sales, Dell builds only the machines that customers order. And it's not clear what competitive advantage a PC from a Dell store has over a machine from a rival with more retailing experience.

While Dell's retail presence may signal the start of a fundamental shift in strategy, it isn't yet large enough to add a lot of sales. At the 500-square-foot Budapest store, about 50 to 100 people visit on a typical day, and sales usually amount to a couple of PCs or laptops daily. On a recent weekday morning, only one customer is in the store: György Fischer, a 48-year-old information-technology manager for a government research institute. Although he hasn't yet pulled out his wallet, Fischer says he's thrilled with Dell's Latitude 620 notebook and its three-year guarantee. Says Fischer: "I don't know any other companies that offer such a long warranty."


戴尔的店面销售
买一台电脑,放在箱中,然后驾车回家似乎并不具备革命性,除非那台电脑是戴尔的。戴尔公司开创了直接面向顾客的定制个人计算机销售模式,并且以其网站能够比动作缓慢的、非直接的分发销售公司更快地引进最新技术。现在随着市场占有率的下降,戴尔公司现在正在重新审视传统的慢动作的销售模式。戴尔公司正在小心翼翼地向实体的零售商转变,苹果公司(Apple Inc.)凭借此道取得了成功,但是电脑制造商杰威公司(Gateway Inc.)却因此蹒跚而行。十月,戴尔将在高消费阶层的莫斯科购物商场开一家店面。这是继四月在布达佩斯市区引入相似的渠道后的又一举措。地点的挑选并不简单,要找那些顾客能够尝试戴尔机器并且随后会下订单的地方。虽然这些销售点由当地合作伙伴运营,但是只卖戴尔的个人计算机,在那里购机者可以当场买下并带回家。“在匈牙利,网络购物并不如美国或者欧洲普遍,所以人们能够进入品牌店购物是非常重要的。”戴尔驻匈牙利业务经理Tamás Damján这样说道。不久前,店面销售的方式还为戴尔所不屑,但是它现在需要找到占领市场先机的道路。例如,俄罗斯的笔记本电脑的销售以每年50%的速度递增,而戴尔的市场份额只有4.2%,排第八。像许多新兴国家一样,俄罗斯也缺少直接销售赖以支持的送货上门服务,顾客对网上商务几乎没有经验。所以,为了提高市场占有率,戴尔需要销售店面。

How to Build a B2B Brand

How to Build a B2B Brand

There are six shared characteristics of top B2B global brands, according to a study by the Harvard School of Business

Many business-to-business (B2B) CEOs view marketing as the domain of consumer goods brands. They are wrong. Among Interbrand's 10 most valuable global brands, we find Microsoft, Intel, IBM and GE. All generate far more B2B revenues than sales to end consumers.

An HBS research team recently conducted a study of top B2B global brands. They shared the following six characteristics:

1. The CEO is a willing brand cheerleader, loves the brand heritage and is a great storyteller. The CMO sees his or her purpose as helping the CEO achieve this role.

2. The CEO understands that building brand reputation reduces commercial risk, insulates the company in a crisis and provides the common purpose that can bond all the company's stakeholders.

3. Efforts are focused on a single, global corporate brand rather than individual product brands.

4. The payback on marketing expenditures is measured rigorously to the satisfaction of the hard-nosed engineers and finance staff who run the typical B2B enterprise.

5. Coordination of company websites worldwide to present a consistent face to stakeholders is the best way to get control of marketing communications that may have become too decentralized.

Why should brand-building be important to B2B CEOs?

First, most B2B marketers have to address thousands of small businesses as well as enterprise customers. They cannot do so economically using the traditional direct sales force.

Second, if left unattended, individual managers will each do their own adhoc marketing. The result will be a hodgepodge of corporate logos, taglines and packaging. Customers will be confused and the company will look disorganized.

Third, B2B marketers are realizing that developing brand awareness among their customers' customers can capture a larger share of channel margins and build loyalty that can protect them against lower-priced competitors.

Consider these examples:

Intel is the ultimate ingredient brand. Zero sales to end consumers yet Intel built a consumer demand pull for its chips that required every PC manufacturer to incorporate them and to advertise Intel Inside on their products and in their ads. Other ingredient brands include Goretex, Teflon and even the Boeing 787 Dreamliner (as a differentiating ingredient for early adopter airlines).

GE and Microsoft are hybrid brands with some direct-to-consumer sales that have helped to build the reputations of what are primarily B2B firms. But these enterprises, although selling to businesses, want to be in touch with end consumers, with their aspirations and their needs. That is a source of competitive advantage in driving their innovation agendas.

Accenture sells nothing to consumers. But its Performance Delivered campaign, backed by the advertising presence of Tiger Woods, has created a positive awareness of the brand among hundreds of thousands of people who may be working for the enterprises to which Accenture consults (or is seeking to consult). And the motivational value of inviting top customers, prospects and employees to golf events involving Tiger cannot be underestimated.

Would Dupont's shareholder value be the same today if it had not made consumers aware of Nylon, Lycra and Stainmaster and linked these innovations to the Dupont name? Definitely not.

Do you think brand-building is essential for B2B companies? Have you seen other characteristics of leadership in smartly branded B2B companies?

 
 
 
 

Where Big Ideas Win Big Bucks

Where Big Ideas Win Big Bucks

Business plan competitions are raising their profiles with bigger cash prizes, and some even throw in office space and site hosting  

When Clifford King attended the Global Security Challenge reception at London Business School on Nov. 8, he was one of five finalists in the business technology contest. King says realizing his team was the one left standing after the suspense-filled critique stage "was like [being on] a reality TV show." His team had just won what's billed as the world's richest business plan competition prize (BusinessWeek.com, 5/30/07)—a $500,000 grant to help expand NoblePeak Vision, a night-vision camera company he co-founded.

Hosted by London Business School and largely sponsored by the Defense Dept., the Global Security Challenge calls for new security-focused tech startups, a field that has been expanding rapidly in the wake of the September 11 terror attacks. In a lucky break for King, the second annual event increased its prize from $10,000 to $500,000 because of heightened interest and increased sponsorship from the U.S government. Yet it still has the same "few strings attached" to the winnings as it did for the smaller amount, according to organizer Simon Schneider.

Even though most competitions haven't boosted their prizes so dramatically, many are adding larger grand prizes. For instance, MIT has announced its $100K Entrepreneurship Competition, which used to award two $30,000 prizes, will now give six cash prizes, including a new clean energy prize worth more than $200,000. Because of the increasing figures, organizer Jeff Sabados says he will also drop the "$100K" from the moniker, a number that refers to the total value of prizes presented during the 2007 contest.

Smaller prizes across the nation have been growing, too. The University of Southern California's business plan competition prize has doubled. The university-wide contest now awards two $25,000 grants for two business plan tracks, traditional and technology commercialization.

Rising Entrepreneurship Prizes

In some cases there's even more prize money involved if the business idea is viable and has a socially conscious twist. For example, New York University's Stern School of Business competition gives twice as much money to the social entrepreneurship track winner as it gives the traditional track winner. Since its start four years ago, interest in the $100,000 Social Entrepreneurship cash prize has grown steadily—the percentage of applicants has doubled since 2006 to 30% of submitted plans, says Mara Rose, director of the Stewart Satter Program in Social Entrepreneurship at Stern.

Rosemary Gliedt, who manages Washington University's Skandalaris Center for Entrepreneurial Studies, says she has also observed this trend of increased awards for social plan winners. For example, the school's Social Entrepreneurship & Innovation Competition gives out $50,000 more in total prizes than the Olin Cup, the university's flagship business plan competition. Part of the reason for growth within this track, according to Stern's Rose: "A social capital market is harder to tap into, and there are not as many potential sources of funding—there's sort of an idea that this can be a challenging sell."

Not every competition feeling the pressure to up the ante has the cash resources to do so. Their solution? Mixing cash with company-sponsored, in-kind prizes sponsored. At the 2008 Rice Business School competition, besides $20,000 in cash and a $100,000 investment, winners will get $110,000 in additional in-kind services (including office space, airplane tickets, and Web site hosting), a $25,000 increase from the 2007 contest.

All About the Exposure

However, it's the hefty $200,000 value for the entire set of prizes that garners extra attention from applicants and future investors. Competition director Philana Diaz says winners must be based in Austin to take advantage of office space and, to be eligible for Web services, they can't already have a Web site. Terms of the large $100,000 investment are drawn up with the Grand Order of Successful Entrepreneurs (GOOSE) Society of Texas, a six-member group that invests in the competition and is not regulated by the school.

Rice is also working on increasing its cash awards. "In an entrepreneurial startup, cash is king," acknowledges Diaz. "Our goal is to get more cash prizes." But for now, Nicholas Seet, chief executive of 2005 winner Auditude, a tech company that develops automated media tracking, says the exposure from participating in Rice's competition led his company to more investment opportunities and helped get the company on its feet. Investors "liked the idea so much they added a cool million more," he says.

And while some may be bumping up prizes, others are looking for ways to start competitions from scratch and encourage growth in entrepreneurial infrastructure. At the annual three-day Global Startup Workshop, which grew out of the MIT competition 10 years ago, attendees can learn how to set up a business plan competition. This year, Hanfei Shen, a lead organizer of the workshop, figures 63 of the 250 participants came to the 2007 conference, held in Norway, to establish a competition within their own organizations. Participants included representatives from groups in Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Costa Rica. So far, 16 business plan competitions have emerged from the workshop.

Cash Is Still Essential

Past competition winners, such as Ingenia Technology co-founder Mark McGlade, believe upping the prize can have a more lasting effect by creating a higher profile for both the startup company and the competition. "The higher the prize money, the higher the media attention and the higher the venture capital," says McGlade, who won $10,000 in the inaugural Global Security Challenge competition.

But for other fledgling companies, startup capital—not publicity—is most essential. Noah Dinkin, who won NYU's $50,000 social entrepreneurship prize more than a year ago, says the cash and six months of free office space gave him a way to keep developing his business. Scheduled to launch in early 2008, Dinkin's Verge Records will be a record label promoting artists from poverty-stricken urban areas such as the shantytowns of Rio de Janeiro. "I've yet to meet an entrepreneur who doesn't need the money when they're starting a business—cash is very important," says Dinkin.

And what if your contest victory isn't a cash cow? B. Michael Roberts, a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School, which awards $10,000 to winners of its business plan competition, says the contest is more about enriching the student's experience than providing funding. "For our students it's a great capstone experience."

 
 
 

选择eGlobal的优势与关于投资eGlobal的要求

选择eGlobal的优势与关于投资eGlobal的要求
一、市场竞争状态分析
主要的国际竞争对手
主要的国际竞争对手是系统提供商IriScan和硬件生产厂家LG和松下.他们的主要优势是多年硬件销售积累的强大的市场经验和市场接受能力; 劣势是他们的本部不在中国, 他们的软件系统不能总是配置齐全,并且如果实在中国应用的话会受到中国法律的严格约束.
Domestic Competitors国内竞争对手
主要的国内竞争对手是一家叫PATTEK的公司.然而他们是早期的研发者并且只研究到虹膜识别算法这一步.他们的优势是他们的算法符合中国法律要求.劣势是他们没有特定的硬件,当然也就没有工业化的硬件和软件.
二、eGlobal的竞争优势
总之,当与国内外同行比较时,易环球的主要优势有:
1、 现有的工业客户基础.
2、 在中国建立的完善的公司和网络.
3、 完备的硬件设备可满足不同行业和环境的要求.
4、 世界领先的日本OKI公司的硬件平台在中国的独家代理权.
5、 软件强大的处理能力.目前LG系统的处理能力为4000人.标准的OKI系统是3000人,,而易环球系统是专门为大型应用和流量设计的,能确保处理能力最低1千万同时达到相同的反应速度.
6、 易环球能为不同领域开发和定制系统.
7、 软件应用平台被广泛接受.多数虹膜识别系统是应用于最终用户的,也就是有敏感信息.易环球采用了Java技术来确保软件在所有平台上的稳定和安全. 大多国外竞争者只支持WINDOWS平台并有系统不稳定的问题.
8、 硬件系统成本低.中国的技术资源比西方国家的要明显便宜的多.
9、 硬件设备支持完备.
10、 软件平台方面有强大的科研开发能力.
11、 所有的易环球技术人员对软硬件都很精通并在设计,研究和复杂系统集成方面经验老道.
12、 易环球已把我们的虹膜技术集成到公共信息服务系统中并成功获得该项专利.
13、 高质量客户服务.我们的服务人员有强大的技术背景.他们精通于OKI硬件和我们已获专利的软件.
14、 易环球已经涵盖了很大范围的市场和客户.我们在深圳的分支可以为中国南部提供服务以期覆盖中国大部分城市.

三、公司经验:
1) 大型项目和系统集成颇具经验.曾为沈阳医疗保险局提供大型医疗保险智能卡方案.
2) 曾为很多国外软硬件平台做过中国代理.比如,美国CIC公司电子签名在中国的独家代理,以及美国WebGain公司非常有名的JAVA软件系统.
3) 在这些市场部门与很多的决策者有深厚的关系.已有三个系统在不同的行业顺利应用执行.

四、投资要求
公司现正试图将其在专利技术推广到中国和其他某些海外市场上.目前需要一些营运资金来确保几个大项目的顺利进行和销售及市场营销活动的扩大.
因此公司正在寻找US$2m 到 US$5m的投资额以实现这些商机.
这些资金的主要应用包括以下几项:-
1) 提供研发资本以为新的市场领域提供解决方案.
2) 招聘并培训更多的技术销售团队来确保一系列在进行中的大项目.
3) 铺开国内银行和安全部门的市场.
4) 添加一些国际技术展品来寻找国外代理商.
5) 营运资金来保证提升了的员工级别和演示程序以及存货系统.
6) 国内客户服务渠道的开发,因为这是既是要求也是售后服务的收入来源.
7) 改良的资产负债表允许向大的独立提供商投标,易环球可以作为主要联系人,提供结合良好的从门锁到扫描接口的硬件.


五、总结
很明显虹膜身份识别系统已为国内外市场高端识别系统的需求做好准备.这些要求被日益增长的电子时代高手段诈骗和对很多发展国家造成威胁的恐怖分子所驱使逐步提升.
北京易环球电子有限公司在中国市场上有非常有竞争性的优势.也更加确认他的系统与世界最好的硬件平台和标准所匹配.从科研开发,生产,易环球都已将其所有精力投入到生产开发国际领先技术平台上,为本地专利添加一层保护膜,确保对市场的调控度.
易环球电子现正期待能够找到有兴趣进行投资的公司或个人以便共同走向最后的成功.
联系方式:
Limin Song
Limin_Song@eGlobal.com.cn
Tel: +86 1560 1001888
www.eglobal.com.cn

《时代》评出07年最热门电子产品

 
 
 
组图:《时代》评出07年最热门电子产品

    美国《时代》杂志10月30日公布2007年热门的电子产品名单,苹果(Apple)公司的iPhone手机并荣获今年度的最佳发明。

时代杂志指出,造形赏心悦目的iPhone把现有的触控荧幕、照相、无线上网等技术,成功整合在易懂易用、时尚、简洁的介面,让消费者一新耳目。此外,苹果公司为iPhone量身打造功能完整的"OS X"作业系统,让iPhone成为一部货真价实的微型电脑。以下是时代杂志评选出的2007年最热门电子产品。

Apple iPhone(苹果iPhone手机)

苹果iPhone手机获得今年度的最佳发明

iPhone号称人性化设计,具有多点触碰(Multi-touch)的文字输入方法以及动态感应器与电源管理等功能,同时具有上网、多媒体流览和电话等多种功能,并可播放音乐及观赏影片。


Apple iPhone(图:AXEL SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images)

Netgear SPH200W Wi-Fi Phone(Netgear无线互联电话SPH200W)

Netgear公司的 Skype WiFi 电话是全球第一部无线互联电话,无论在世界任何地方、任何时间,只要有 WiFi 的接入,就能免费的和其他 Skype 用户通话,无需任何电脑。SPH200W型号并提供充电底座 。


Netgear SPH200W Wi-Fi Phone(图:Netgear网站)


Nikon COOLPIX S51(尼康超薄新型数位相机)

COOLPIX S51 拥有 810 万有效画素高解析度及3.0 吋 LCD荧幕,配备3倍光学变焦镜头,加上光学防手震系统,进而产生清晰、色彩自然的照片。COOLPIX S51C的COOLPIX CONNECT提供的WIFLY服务,使用者可在有无线网路的区域透过WIFLY即时传送照片到任何亲友的E-MAIL信箱。


Nikon Coolpix S51c(图:Nikon公司)

Palm Centro(Palm智慧型手机 Centro)

以小型智慧型手机为设计取向的Centro,配置Palm作业系统,搭配Qwerty键盘,并保留了触摸屏配置,让使用者浏览网页及管理音乐档案时更便利。有红色和黑色2款可供消费者选择,并以绑约99美元的超低价上市,因而受到瞩目。


Palm Centro(图:网络图片)

Sony Handycam HDR-CX7 (索尼数码摄像机HDR-CX7)

HDR-CX7使用新款MemoryStick Pro Duo存储卡保存视频,采用2.7吋16:9双模式触控式彩色液晶荧幕,拥有Super SteadyShot光学防抖、10倍光学、20倍数位变焦功能,以及黑暗环境下可使用的NightShot红外摄像模式,并具有Film Roll Index 影片缩图检索及Face Index人像索引功能,使补捉影像及分享影片更便利。


Sony Handycam HDR-CX7(图:YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty Images)

Toshiba Portege R500R500 (东芝超轻薄12吋笔记型电脑)

Toshiba Portege R500 拥有银灰色流线的外表,采用Core 2 duo U7600 1.2GHz处理器,Intel GMA 950 显示卡,最高2GB的记忆体,120GB硬碟以及12.1吋XGA TFT半穿透式彩色液晶荧幕,同时还带有PCMCIA 插槽,乙太网路卡,蓝芽以及VGA输出;同时有着号称世界上最长待机时间的电池。加入了光碟机,实测重量为1.067kg,若拿下电池,机身重量仅有768克。


Toshiba Portege R500 series(Toshiba网站)

Samsung P2 (三星蓝牙MP3播放器)

Samsung P2新款 MP3 Player,拥有 3 吋荧幕,着重于外型的时尚、优良的音质和方便操作。支援立体声蓝牙技术,内建 2GB、4GB、8GB Flash 记忆体三种规格,可连续播放35小时音乐,有黑色、酒红、纯白三种颜色可供选择。


Samsung P2(图:网络图片)

Iomega eGo Portable Hard Drive(艾美加可携式硬碟机)

全新双介面硬碟机较一般外置硬碟机提供更多功能选项。具备7200rpm极级转速和每秒480mb传输速度,让用户以更高效率传送和备份数据,以至编制视像资讯及其他大型档案。


Iomega eGo Portable Hard Drive(图:网络图片)

FlyTech Dragonfly(智能遥控蜻蜓)

智慧遥控蜻蜓是世界上第一个以无线电飞行的昆虫玩具, 翅膀以碳纤维与塑胶薄片、身体以保丽龙制成,可以遥控操作展翅高飞,并能做出圆周飞行、俯冲、滑翔姿态,能承受坠落碰撞。可以在任何地方安全的飞行。

高精度图片
flytech-dragonfly(图:网络图片)

Belkin N1 Vision Wi-Fi Router(贝尔金无线路由器与互动式显示器)

贝尔金的N1无线路由器与互动式显示器,拥有独特的外观和时尚的设计,安装了黑白液晶显示屏,不仅可以显示上传/下载速度、纪录频宽、显示日期时间,还可以分别显示每一个联机上来的装置所占的频宽。此外,N1本身是一个带有 gigabit port 的 802.11n 无线路由器,无线最高可达 300 Mbps,射程可达500 多公尺。


2008年十大经济预测

2008年十大经济预测


随着圣诞假期的来临,2007年也将逼近尾声。回顾今年,美国次贷之灾波及欧、美等多个经济强国,油价及原物料价格飙升形成通膨隐忧,已使经济景气开始向下探;展望来年,中国在奥运后的经济减缓甚或瓦解,将成为全球经济的不定时炸弹。因此,美商环球透视机构(Global Insight)对2008年的经济提出了十大预测,并预估2008年全球经济成长率将从2007年的3.7%下降至3.3%。

美经济景气2002年以来最差

环球透视的首席经济学家贝赫韦甚(Nariman Behravesh)预估,房市风暴持续漫延下,美国本季的国内生产毛额(GDP)可能零成长,2008前半年成长仅0.8%,明年度经济成长或许会低于1.9%。消费将从2007年的2.8%降到2008年的1.7%;资本支出增加2.6%;净出口成长0.9%。

世界经济成长将减缓

除了商品出口国或地区,世界性的经济将成长缓慢,虽然加拿大、墨西哥、美国能以高油价支撑经济成长。不过,欧洲将受打击,包括全球经济成长缓慢、强势货币、相继而来的信贷紧缩、某些国家房市问题与高油价问题。日本也会有相类似的苦恼,到目前为止,由于美国次级房贷等房市问题,股市的走势将取决于中国与亚洲等其它国家的经济情势。

亚洲国家经济在下半年才会降温

为抑制严重的通膨,北京当局多次施行紧缩政策,所以2008的上半年利率很可能再上扬,人民币亦将升值。预计到明年8月,中共官方可能会更加紧缩信贷条件,中国经济成长或许会减缓,但这却会伤及亚洲的其它地区。不过,印度的经济成长主要靠内需经济带动,所以其经济成长率仍可支撑在8.5%左右。

油价高档盘旋

全球经济不景气将使油价回到每桶75至80美元之间,但供需仍然吃紧,所以,预计WTI油价平均每桶由2007年的72.13美元上升至明年的75.67美元,亦有临时攀升的可能。由于近期原物料巿场投机色彩重,一些人士已指出商品价格特别是油价是"下一个泡沫"。

核心通膨稍缓

美国经济衰退将逐渐推升失业率,预计个人消费支出平减指数将从今年的2.0%下降至1.8%,核心消费者物价指数将从今年的2.0%下降到2008年的1.8%。迄今高油价格对其它商品价格与工资的影响很小,而且乐观情势至少还能持续到明年底。

Fed续降利率

由于通膨的威胁相对较小,所以,联准会(Fed)应会采压低利率政策,以刺激成长。环球透视预测联准会在明年1月底以及3月中的会议中将分别降息0.5%及0.25%。但若信贷危机再恶化,联准会只能注入更多资金维持巿场流动性,并支持布什内阁提出的次贷救济或冻结计划。

美房市在2008年中跌至谷底

明年上半年房巿将持续下滑,故预计新屋供应会少于100万户,低于2005年的半数,预计下半年房产市场的供应可逐渐回稳。

美贸易赤字持续改善

美国经济成长趋缓可能比世界其它区域来得显著,但不管经济是否衰退,美国经常帐赤字都将从2007年的7,550亿美元下降至2008年的6,590亿美元。

美元汇率将触底

2002年起,因贸易赤字扩大,美元一直呈现跌势,近来经济疲软,市场预期美国将比其他国家降息幅度更大,美元将持续走跌。但在2008下半年以及2009年初经济复苏后,情势将转为乐观。预测欧元兑美元的汇率将在明年夏天达到高点$1.55;加币汇率则已经过了高点。若油价持续下跌,日圆和人民币将因贸易顺差持续升值。

2008年中前 美国经济最脆弱

环球透视曾两年前曾指出,美国会遭逢两个以上的冲击,导致经济萧条,目前次级房贷与高油价的冲击正应验了这个论点。除非到2008年初油价能维持在每桶75至80美元之间,美国才有可能脱离不景气;反之,或再有冲击,都可能是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。因此环球透视将美国经济走向萧条的可能性提高至35%至40%之间。